Social Sustainability Index Unemployment [SSIU] - Q01/2013 Development, Situation and Trends

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Inside Sustainability: Facts, Figures, Bullshit - Part I: Unemployment [_kt75 | reflections 01.1/2013]

The first quarter of 2013 sees a further worsening of the job markets world wide. Accordingly, the official unemployment rate for Europe (Jan 2013) is reported with 11.7% (growing), for the USA 7.6% (indifferent), Australia 5.6% (growing), Asia 4.4% (growing). Whereas the booming countries in Asia still report low unemployment rates, Europe as well as the USA struggle with constantly high or growing job cuts. In particular the European crisis-hit countries Portugal (17.6% ↑), Spain (26.2% ↑), Italy (11.7% ↑), Greece (27.0% ↑), etc. report climbing (official) unemployment rates [1]-[4]. As analysed elsewhere, the official unemployment rates rarely reflect the real conditions [5]. Applying the conservative correction factor cf (includes also socially critical/precarious job arrangements) the unemployment rates for the above named countries in the first quarter 2013 would range in the order of: Portugal 32.7%, Spain 48.7%, France 19.7%, Italy 21.7%, Greece 50.1%, UK 14.7%, Germany 9.8%, Switzerland 5.9%.

Critical sectors are: solar power industry (due to Chinese competitors), finance industry (due to the permanent €-crisis), health services, public administration (due to governmental austerity measures). Problematic is the continuous relocation of partly entire production processes towards low-cost countries (emerging market countries). Locally, most critical is the expansion of the domestic low-pay sector. For example in Germany between 7-8 million people (estimated) work in this sector, typically having two or more jobs in order earn enough money. Another critical aspect is the often claimed lifting of the retirement age. As widely accepted (but not publicly communicated nor admitted) lifting the retirement age is rather meant to further lower the pension claims for the benefit of the pension funds.

The next quarters will most likely not see any substantial improvement concerning unemployment. It is expected to remain at high levels and, depending upon the economic and political developments (focus: Italy), may increase further [6], [7].

References:

[1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7]